...June 2005 shook the country so much that reverberations are still felt today. That month, after four rounds of elections, an anti-Syrian political bloc came to power in a definitive popular victory - 72 out of 128 seats in parliament.

The win came in the wake of a string of political assassinations: On October 1, 2004, a car bomb exploded next to the motorcade of Druze MP Marwan Hamadeh. He was severely injured and his driver was killed.

A massive explosion on February 14, 2005, killed former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri in Beirut. This last assassination was considered to be the driving force behind the anti-Syrian camp's victory. It was followed by assassination attempts on several anti-Syrian journalists.

Such assassination attempts have now become expected because of the geopolitical reality, or rather, geopolitical crisis in Lebanon: It's time to elect a new president. According to Article 49 of the Lebanese constitution, the president needs to be elected by a majority of at least 65 parliament members.

Up until Wednesday afternoon, the anti-Syrian camp had 65 MPs solidly affiliated with them, meaning they could determine the next president without consulting other political groups. Now, since they only have 64 assured votes, they will need to negotiate with rival parties, among them, Hizbullah.

According to Lebanese law, an MP who passes away or leaves parliament before his term is up does not cede his seat to another member in his party. Rather, he is replaced by the winner of new elections in his district, creating the possibility for a party change. Clearly, assassinations of anti-Syrian politicians have the potential to erode the bloc's population gradually...