Monday, April 6, 2009
When the United States abrogates its responsibilities as one of the few backbones the international order has, chaos tends to ensue as the vacuum is rushed. It's every country for itself when the sheriff decides to take a vacation (and the UN is NOT a sheriff). John Bolton on N. Korea's missile launch: Obama's NK Reaction: More Talks
...talks are exactly where North Korea wants to be. From them ever greater material and political benefits will flow to Pyongyang, in exchange for ever more hollow promises to dismantle its nuclear program.
So far, therefore, the missile launch is an unambiguous win for North Korea. (Although not orbiting a satellite, all three rocket stages apparently fired, achieving Pyongyang's longest missile flight yet.) But the negative repercussions will extend far beyond Northeast Asia.
Iran has carefully scrutinized the Obama administration's every action, and Tehran's only conclusion can be: It is past time to torque up the pressure on this new crowd in Washington. Not only is Iran's back now covered by its friends Russia, China and others on the U.N. Security Council, but it sees an American president so ready to bend his knee for public favor in Europe that the mullahs' wish list for U.S. concessions will grow by the minute.
Israel must also be carefully considering how the U.S. watched North Korea rip through "the international community." The most important lesson the new government headed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should draw is: Look out for No. 1. If Israel isn't prepared to protect itself, including using military force, against Iran's nuclear weapons program, it certainly shouldn't be holding its breath for Mr. Obama to do anything.
Russia and China must also be relishing this outcome. They will have faced down Mr. Obama in his first real crisis, having provided Security Council cover for a criminal regime, and emerged unscathed. They will conclude that achieving their large agendas with the new administration can't be too hard. That conclusion may be unfair to the new American president; but it will surely color how Moscow and Beijing structure their policies and their diplomacy until proven otherwise. That alone is bad news for Washington and its allies.
Obama is like a drunk teenager with a machete.
At this moment, if Israel were to attack Iran the US public would support it and the Obama administration would be forced to do so as well. That's where the balance still sits with the public. A year from now, or even a few months from now at the rate things are going, it may no longer be possible to do at all.
Obama is playing chicken with Israeli lives and he probably thinks he'll win, but it's extremely foolish of him. Israel has other moves on the board as well. It could go after Hizbollah assets in Europe and South America, on exactly the same legal grounds Obama uses to attack AQ in Pakistan.
A diplomatic solution is possible if Obama pressures Europe sufficiently to pressure Russia sufficiently to carry it out. How long before Israel makes the same calculation that Iran has made, that Obama and the Europeans are weak and that they will adjust themselves to realities. Going after Hizobllah/Iranian assets would create such a new reality.
...and I have a sneaking feeling that cutting our most advanced weapons systems will add to the overall giddiness of the miscreants of the world, as well.