[The following, by Eamonn McDonagh, is crossposted from Z Word.]

1. If and when Iran acquires nuclear weapons the avoidance of nuclear war between it and Israel, the country it seeks to destroy, will depend on Israel having a second strike capability. That means that it must have the capacity to suffer a nuclear attack and still be able to inflict a terrible retaliatory blow. If it has this capacity then it has less motivation either to mount a conventional attack on Iran designed to prevent or delay its acquisition of nuclear weapons or, once these weapons have been acquired, launch a preemptive nuclear attack designed to prevent them being used and permanently end Iran's capacity to threaten its security.

2. Given Israel's small size and the inherent vulnerability of static, land-based, launch systems submarines are the key to maintaining a second strike capability and that's why Israel is currently engaged in a considerable expansion of its submarine fleet. Being able to keep at least one of these vessels close enough to Iran to launch nuclear-armed cruise missiles against it means that even if an Iranian nuclear attack were to lay waste to Israel it would still be able to inflict immense damage on Iran in retaliation. None of these are pretty thoughts but thinking them is essential for avoiding nuclear war.

3. Norway recently announced that it would no longer allows its facilities to be used by Germany and Israel for the deep water trials of the two new submarines the former is building for the latter. No doubt another location will be found to carry out the tests but that's beside the point. There can't be any human rights argument for Norway's decision as the submarines could have no impact (apart from protecting them from nuclear annihilation by deterring an Iranian attack) on the lives of Palestinians in the West Bank or Gaza. By denying Israel and Germany facilities for testing the submarines Norway is making it more difficult for Israel to maintain a second strike capability and thus - in objective terms and regardless of whatever explanations it might choose to offer for its decision - favoring an Israeli decision to launch a preemptive strike, either conventional or nuclear, on Iran.