Tuesday, March 4, 2003
USS Clueless says:
I have a suspicion that what's really going on now with the UN is that our opponents know full well they have zero chance of stopping us from attacking. What they want to avoid now is an open vote on the issue. For such nations as France, the best possible path into the future is for the US and UK to give up on the UN and to attack without bringing the latest UNSC resolution to vote. That way France is off the hook for responsibility; it can cluck and sneer and talk about how we should have gone to the UNSC no matter how the war comes out, but it doesn't actually have to go on the books with a formal response to the measure.
Equally, the non-permanent swing members don't like the heat; I think they wish the problem would just go away.
I don't know about the swing members, he may be right about them (he may be right about the whole thing!), but I'm getting the sinking feeling that some of the prominent folks (like FRANCE) may just want this thing to go to a vote, knowing we'll go anyway. If they really believe their own drivel (and I believe in some cases they do), that their mission is to discredit the United States and make it more difficult for us to pursue our course and have our way in the future, then making us do something that will make us out to be the big international lawbreakers they relish in making us out to be would be just the ticket. So vetoing a resolution (or putting someone else like Russia up to it) knowing we're going anyway would be just the thing - and a huge betrayal to the US, but that won't make a whit of difference to the [fill in the location here] street.
Maybe I'm just in a negative mood.
I wouldn't worry all that much about that. The U.N. doesn't mean that much. We've done all kinds of things without their approval, as have countless other nations. Including, most recently, the French.
The argument that those who advocating going to the U.N. often made was that by simply trying, we would gain credibility, and gain allies who otherwise might not be with us. And it is indeed the case that we have an awful lot of allies who will help us now, no matter what happens at the U.N. It's too easy to get pessimistic about these things.
My head tells me that you're right (and you are), but my heart makes me fear that ignoring the UN at this point (and don't get me wrong, GWB should get on with it as far as I'm concerned) will just fuel the anti-American "street." And while even democratic governments aren't always slaves to public opinion, it's just more grit in the gears. Remembering that there's still a lot more history to ride once we take Baghdad...
Hey, I'm on board either way, of course.