[...]Clinton fell for that. Bush won't. But it's going to take a few years for the Palestinians to figure that out, as they keep demanding Phase II and get told that they aren't ready. And in the mean time, the march of larger events will continue to change everything. The fall of Saddam has already cut off a major source of support for the struggle, and the new reality in the region will lead to further reductions from the other Arab nations. And because of that, there will be a decline in attacks against Israel, not because the Palestinians want to give up, and not because of any pretend crackdown.

Ultimately, there won't be peace until the Palestinians collectively want it. Until now they've claimed to want peace, but the only peace they'd actually accept would come through total victory over Israel. It will only be when they want peace more than victory that peace will become possible. I think it will happen, but not because of this roadmap. It will happen as part of our larger effort to try to straighten out the larger problem of Arab failure over the course of the next 30 years. Until then, the roadmap is a useful way to force the Palestinians to begin to implement reforms, and to keep the Europeans and Russians and UN entertained. But will the "roadmap" process actually lead directly to peace? No; not until other larger events help to manipulate the situation to force the Palestinians to give up the struggle. You can't plan peace unless both sides actually want peace, and right now the Palestinians still don't.