[...]But the trouble with a recall election is there's no primary, anyone who rustles up 65 signatures can get his name on the ballot, the big-party votes will get split every which way, and California's next governor could be put in office with 15 or 20 per cent support.

Which is where the political calculations start. If Davis is still there in 2004, the Bush team reckon they'll take California and be heading for an electoral-college landslide. On the other hand, whoever takes over from Davis is likely to be just as unpopular by then as Davis is now: nobody seriously thinks the place can be fixed between now and then.

So this time next year Governor Arnie will be reviled as a Republican usurper, and the California recall will somehow be tied to the Florida recount, and Bush will lose the state, as he did in 2000. Ambitious California Dems have concluded that tossing poor old Gray in the shark tank and letting ravenous Republicans chow down on him for a few months may be the best way to position themselves for the next time.[...]