Sunday, July 20, 2003
North Korea Hides New Nuclear Site, Evidence Suggests
The discovery of the new evidence, which one senior administration official cautioned was "very worrisome, but still not conclusive," came just as North Korea declared to the United States 11 days ago that it had completed reprocessing 8,000 spent nuclear fuel rods, enough to make a half dozen or so nuclear weapons.
American officials have said they cannot verify that claim, though they confirm that sensors set up on North Korea's borders have begun to detect elevated levels of krypton 85, a gas emitted as spent fuel is converted into plutonium.
What concerns American, South Korean and Japanese analysts, however, is not simply the presence of the hard-to-detect gas but its source. While American satellites have been focused for years on North Korea's main nuclear plant, at Yongbyon, the computer analyses that track the gases as they are blown across the Korean Peninsula appeared to rule out the Yongbyon reprocessing plant as their origin. Instead, the analysis strongly suggests that the gas originated from a second, secret plant, perhaps buried in the mountains.
American officials have long suspected that North Korea would try to build a second plant to protect itself against a pre-emptive strike by the United States. The United States even demanded an inspection of one underground site five years ago, only to find it empty, but this is the first time evidence has emerged that a second plant may be in operation. [...]
Impression: We're going to have to get used to living in a world in which North Korea has nuclear weapons. I don't see what the administration can possibly do about it. Iraq was an easy case compared to this.
We're not going to go to war. The surrounding naitons don't want that and they're the ones who's civilian populations will pay the price. From what I've heard, there's just no way to prevent a counter-strike via artillery against Seoul. Although I've heard a pre-emptive strike could take out the threat, I don't see how that's possible. We couldn't even preven Iraq from launching big, giant-sized surface to surface missiles, despite our best efforts, how will we stop an artillery bombardment?
Unless China, Russia and South Korea participate in a complete blockade leading to the economic collapse of the regime, I see no change in the situation barring an attack on the South by the North.