Thursday, August 21, 2003
Forced to take action after a Hebron Imam and Hamas member blew himself up on a crowded bus, Israel struck back killing "senior Hamas man," Abu Shanab. I'm in awe of Israel's ability to do things like that. To know with precision when the target is getting in the car, which car it is, coordinate with helicopters in the air and strike and kill their target. My blood boiled when I heard about the bus-bombing. I'm all for harsh measures - total war against the terrorists and anyone who helps them.
But I was afraid. Afraid that Israel would screw up the diplomatic game again, afraid that Israel would strike back too soon and too moderately, that they would do so while the PA was making noises about going to war against the terrorist groups but before it would be clear that they had no intention, as usual, of doing so after the dust of the bus had fully settled.
That, I fear, is what they did. No doubt Abu Shanab deserved to die, and violently, as do all of Hamas's supporters, but did he have to die at that moment? If all Israel was going to do was swat this one bastard, and temporarily halt security turn-overs, well, it's just more of the same. More of the pin-prick strikes. More of what the media will simply portray as more of the usual tit-for-tat that's gone on for so long. More of the same old grind.
Couldn't Sharon's people have waited a bit longer...and then surprised us...not by giving us more of the same exchange of blows, but by saving up for something really big? Let the PA have their chance, if only for a few days, then gone ahead with something different...something big.
I don't have the exact formula for what that something big is, but I can think of a few things, and so can you I'm sure. No, I'm not talking about transfer, things would have to be much worse for that to happen, but one thing I'm quite sure of - half-measures accomplish nothing. They lose on all fronts. You lose in the diplomatic war of attrition, they cost you in the economic war of attrition, and in the physical war of attrition as well. What Sharon is in the process of doing is the Israeli equivalent of launching a few cruise missiles and going on to the next issue. A bit of an overstatement, I know, but you get the drift. Do it right, or don't do it at all. To do otherwise is to make people angry and spend capital for no good purpose. If they were just going to go back to the same-old, they could have waited a few days to do it, and used the lull to issue an ultimatum concerning the next time (and there's going to be a next-time, whether they move now or not) and make plans for the inevitable while building, instead of losing capital.
There was a time when ultimatums would have been counter-productive. They would have put far more power in the hands of the terrorists than they deserved, by giving them the ability to stop progress at their will. Now however, the Israeli government could have seen whether the PA was ready to change directions, actually work with Sharon and do what was necessary to de-fang and destroy the terror infrastructure. If so, then so much the better, because we're coming to last-ends. If not, then further attacks (or serious attempts) would have been the siren that let slip the dogs of war - without half measures.
Update: Heh...on the other hand, in what could in fact be a fit of sanity, this Power Line post is pretty amusing.