Solomonia Archive: Striking Syria - Is Saudi Arabia Next?

Monday, October 6, 2003

David Bedein asks. It appears, we can hope, that the days that countries like Syria can double-deal, host terrorists in their territory and run proxy-wars against Israel and the USA in Iraq, then run back to the UN or their great-power ally for protection when they suffer the inevitable may be waning.

Yesterday, Israel struck at what they say (and I believe them) is a terrorist base not far outside Damascus. Predictably, the Syrians (who are on the Security Council!) did go running back to the UN for help. In a positive development, the US has refused to condemn the attack, instead turning the criticism back at Syria:

“We have repeatedly told the government of Syria that it is on the wrong side in the war on terror and that it must stop harboring terrorists,” a senior administration official said. “That is still our view.”

This is the perfect time for both Israel and the US to turn the pressure on Syria, as both country's interests coincide - as they always have, but this moment, with terror attacks inside Israel and fighters still coming across the border into Iraq, is a singular moment for action.

Bedein says this represents a return to the Dayan doctrine:

...which was in effect between 1967 and 1973: To hit Arab terrorists at the source of their support: in the neighboring Arab states who remain in a state of war with Israel since 1948.

He goes on to suggest that Saudi Arabia may be next. Saudi Arabia has continued to support terror groups and moved American-made F-15's to a base in northwestern Arabia in contravention of the agreement they made when the jets were purchased. Further, Saudi Arabi is said to be supporting the Sunni insurgency inside Iraq:

...Middle East News Line, relying on CIA reports, noted that the Saudis have been named as a leading financier of the Sunni insurgency in Iraq. A CIA report on threats in Iraq has identified Iran, Saudi Arabia and Syria as the leading supporters of the Sunni insurgency against the U.S. military. The report asserted that the three countries have contributed insurgents and funding to a range of groups, including al-Qaeda and Hizbullah. The report was disclosed by Kurdish sources in Iraq to the London-based Al Hayat daily. Al Hayat, owned by members of the Saudi royal family, reported in Auguest that the CIA report cites the activities of major Islamic insurgency groups in Iraq and their state sponsors. The CIA report marked the first time that Saudi Arabia was specifically identified as a supporter of the Sunni insurgency in Iraq. It's about time that Israel took action against Syria. If Saudi Arabia continues its present course of action, military action may be necessary there next.

Could we be seeing a shift in doctrine? With regard to Syria, Saudi Arabia and Iran, America and Israel have such close interests that they're virtually indistiguishable. Israel may be able to perform actions that the US doesn't have the diplomatic credit or will to perform.

Back to the MSNBC article on the US reaction:

...U.S. and Israeli officials said Israel did not warn the Bush administration it was planning the attack. “You don’t ask for a green light and you don’t get a green light,” an Israeli official said...

No green light necessary. It's "do what you have to do" time. My only fear is that there really is no planned doctrine shift behind this, and that what we have are simply more half measures.

In any case, expect more carping from the usual suspects about the lack of respect for and continuing undermining of the United Nations, whining about Israeli agression and America not controlling her ally.

Posted by Solomon at 10:27 AM on Monday, Oct 6, 2003
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