Remember you first read it here. Iran is now on course to force its way into the nuclear club within the next two to three years. When it does, it will owe part of its success to a European Union diplomatic manoeuvre that has spared Iran the prospect of direct confrontation over its illicit nuclear programme, with the international community.

The manoeuvre, which led to the signature of a memorandum between the Islamic Republic and three European Union members in October, appears to have defused the latest crisis. As things stand it is almost certain that the International Atomic Energy Agency, IAEA, will soft pedal the procedure that could have led to a confrontation between Tehran and the United Nations over Iran's alleged pursuit of nuclear weapons.

The European Union initiative has exacted no more than a vague promise from the leadership in Tehran to temporarily halt a secret project to enrich uranium and produce plutonium...

...Iran's nuclear programme started in 1956. The strategic decision to develop nuclear weapons was taken in 1989. The regime has spent an estimated $12 billion on all aspects of this ambitious programme so far. It is not something that Tehran will give up after a session of tea and sympathy with the EU trio.