Friday, November 14, 2003
Amir Taheri in National Review:
Tehran says: No.
Washington says: Yes
The European Union says: Maybe.
And next week the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is expected to say: Maybe yes, maybe not!
Why are there such divergent views on an issue that, given the wealth of data now at the disposal of the IAEA, should not be so hard to handle?
Part of the confusion is because the wrong question is asked.
Iran is right in saying that it is not producing nuclear weapons. What Iran is doing is to set up all the technical, industrial, and materiel means needed to produce such weapons, if and when it decides to do so.
In other words, while not producing nuclear weapons right now, Iran has a nuclear program designed to make such weapons within 18 months. It is like a chef who brings in all that is needed for making a soup but does not actually start the cooking until he knows when the guests will be coming...
A complete program in place, ready for production when the time comes? Where have we heard that before? Taheri goes through it all. Interesting difference between Iran and Iraq: Iran has far more of a regional terror-infrastructure than Iraq did.
We're not invading Iran, and Europe is busy cozying-up to the regime in the hope that being nice will achieve...something. Memo to Mr. Straw: The leopard never changes its spots. Making nice with the regime in Iran might achieve in the short-run, and it may make sense in order to buy time until another strategy is in place, but the ultimate goal must be regime change. There simply is no other long-term strategy. Somehow, I don't get the feeling that the Europeans have that in their plans. It seems so far the strategy is "go along to get along," support regime change in Israel, hope the crocodile eats us last and pray we win the lottery in the mean-time - that is, hope we can delay so long that some unforseen event will come along and change history's course to such an extent that we look back on the worries of these days and laugh.
What's missing from the formula? That sometimes you have to help unforseen events along. Standing in the way of the agents of change, as certain European nations are wont to do is not exactly the course one might hope for.
