Sunday, May 9, 2004
The latest from the activists at Blog-Iran and my thoughts:
In recent days several articles have surfaced regarding the possibility of Israeli missile strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. We know that many of you who receive these news updates are pro-Iranian freedom however we have noticed that many conservative leaning Americans who support Iranian freedom have unfortunately also voiced approval and support of Israeli military assaults on the clerical regime's facilities. We must tell you that this is a very dangerous point of view and if you truly want to stand up for the United States and defend freedom both in the Middle East and here at home, you must be against any and all strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities!!
We will not bore you with the plethora of reasons why military strikes on nuclear facilities are counterproductive, but we must say that if there is one thing the Mullahs in Iran want more than anything else, it is a military strike on these facilities. The United States already has the support of the Iranian people - a military attack on nuclear facilities could have the devastating consequences of turning many Iranians against the United States and stir up Iranian Nationalism (In support of a regime they currently despise) - Nationalism which is now very anti-Mullah and pro-US. In almost every possible scenario that can be thought through - any event that begins with military assaults on nuclear facilities is likely to lead to a situation in which the Mullahs are strengthened, increased regional war breaks out, thousands upon thousands of Iranians if not millions will be killed, and the prospects for peace and freedom will undoubtedly fall to the deepest depths and will be unattainable for many decades to come.
Please, if you support freedom in the Middle East and the continued leadership and strength of the United States you must adamantly oppose Israeli Military strikes on nuclear facilities - because the simple fact remains that no matter how some pundits criticize and characterize the United States/freedom's current predicament, America and all people in the world who demand freedom are in fact in a good position and have the cards stacked in our favor - we mustn't waste this opportunity. Remember: Regime change is the objective - but there are countless ways to go about this other than through the most devastating and counterproductive method of nuclear assaults, which would result neither in regime-change nor anything the United States would be the least bit favorable of.
I certainly hope it doesn't come to it, but it may. The unfortunate fact is that our friends in the Iranian Freedom Movement aren't in charge yet, and no one can say for certain when or if they ever will be. In the mean-time, one of the most repressive, terror-exporting states on the planet, avowed - and likely for ideological reasons, intractable - foe of the United States, Israel and people of good-will everywhere is barreling along toward the aquisition of nuclear weapons. Iran with nuclear weapons...which means who knows who else with nuclear weapons... If that happens, it changes everything.
You might say that still, how long could it last...Iranian nukes would certainly result in a serious push by our government to support pro-freedom elements - but how serious? And is there any guarantee at all that the pro-freedom movement will be any more successful than it has been so far, which, sorry to say, has been not very. I remember seeing William F. Buckley, Jr. discoursing with Alan Colmes once some time back. Colmes was making the point that the fact that the Soviet Union's fall was inevitable, and that it had been a paper tiger for some time showed that we didn't need to worry about it at all, that the energy expended on containing Communism was a mostly a waste. Buckley's response, I thought, was excellent. "Inevitable, yes, but that doesn't mean it wouldn't have swallowed us before it fell."
So, yes, there are forces at work to turn Iran around, and we wish them luck and hope to help them in any small way possible, but we have to treat with reality as we find it, not as we hope it will be.
My feeling concerning the potential of a pre-emptive strike is more than just the worry of politically alienating the Iranian public - although a worry that is. I question how effective such a strike could possibly be. Would Iran, after having witnessed what happened to Iraq two decades ago, really put all their eggs in one, bombable, basket? I doubt it. So you'd get a strike which wouldn't hurt Iran's nuclear aspirations in any effective way and at the same time hand it a bit of diplomatic candy. Further, I'm not so sure that there aren't sufficient numbers of delusional Russians and other Europeans who wouldn't then simply overtly help Iran out undert the illusion that they have nothing to fear...that they actually share some abiding interests with the Islamic Republic of Iran. So again, you simply hand another sucking-up opportunity to nations who seek for any chance to make nice with the Muslims and a buck at the same time.
At any rate, a strike against Iran isn't the first choice, but if it comes...it comes. Regime change in Iran needs to happen. Faster please.
