These will be my impressions of the debate proceedings as we go. You know the drill. I intend to judge many points utilizing traditional karate scoring calls (Ippon - full point, Waza-ari - half point, etc...). I'll explain that as we go. As this will be a live blog and I'm not sure this idea will work out at all, I reserve the right to go back and edit this stuff. I'll upload updates as I have the chance.

My analysis of things will be pretty "average guy" level - at least, if they start pulling a bunch of statistics and numbers out of their butts, I probably won't be able to judge it live. That'll be for other blogs and later analysis.

Friendly bow to each other - I feel more comfortable already.

TSUZUKETE HAJIME [BEGIN!]

Will you do a better job of keeping America safe?

Kerry goes on listing a wide-ranging list of subjects...Bush on point. WAZA-ARI (Half-Point) Bush.

Will the election of Kerry increase chances of another 9/11?

Says no. Bush very good on explaining the big picture of the War on Terror. Kerry narrows it and talks about outsourcing the war (but he wants to bring other nations in to help us elsewhere?) Sorry, IPPON (full point) Bush.

(Missed this question)

Kerry laundry-lists again. Complains about American causalities but complains about not enough troops committed. Doesn't understand the difference in tactics between Afghanistan and Iraq...Bush comes back with Kerry's quote about the removal of Saddam and fitness to be President. "When Iraq is free, America will be more secure."

Kerry talks about diverting troops from Tommy Franks to send to Iraq - not true, read Franks' book..."worse by the day" here comes the doomsaying..."we don't have enough troops there..." (but Mr. Kerry doesn't want to send more there, right?)

Bush asks for a rebuttal. He's good on this message. Kerry rebuts the rebuttal and now has to go back and explain how he can support the troops even with his glooming, defeatist message.

IPPON Bush.

Question about specifics for homeland safety.

Kerry laundry-lists homeland problems - this works better.

Bush's response about a tax gap - uggg...the first uncomfortable moment. Childish. Gets back on message...sounding better now. "Best way to protect America is to stay on the offense."

Kerry rebuts about the tax cuts and the untranslated FBI documents.

WAZA-ARI Kerry.

How do you know it's time to bring the troops home?

(Bush is getting too excited and seems to be taking things too personally...calm down. You were winning.) Bush talks about getting the Iraqis working for themselves and the promises of a free Iraq.

Kerry is calmer. (2nd Kerry reference to his own service.) Pretty good answer.

Bush asks for another rebuttal...not necessary. Should have waited. Gave Kerry an opening for his 87 billion dollars flip-flop...[this was the only thing that came close to a soundbite for the night] Kerry talks about his service again (3rd time).

Asked about Kerry's quote "How do you ask a man to be the last one to die for a mistake" Is Iraq a mistake?

Kerry says No. Huh? That's not what you've been saying so far. Kerry is caught between his two faces. (Bush has had a sour face all evening. No good.)

Bush calls Kerry's remarks "absurd." Takes Kerry to task for denigrating our allies and claiming we haven't cooperating with the UN. Good comment: How do you ask other countries to come in and join us in a diversion?

TORIMASEN (No conclusive point - advantage Bush, but it wasn't quite enough to merit a score)

(Missed this question again - have to listen and type)

Bush is very on-message about not sending mixed signals to allies and the world. "It is hard work." "A free Iraq is going to make the world a more peaceful place."

Kerry is talking about how few troops the other countries have in country (of course, they don't have many to send).

TORIMASEN (no point granted)

Next question about Kerry's statements about Bush lying.

Kerry talks about Bush's supposed lies in his State of the Union, etc...

Bush needs to relax and be more Presidential. He has substance on his side, but he's starting to sound shrill.

Fox is doing a split screen much of the time. It doesn't work well for Bush.

IPPON Kerry (style points - substance for Bush)

Has the war been worth it?

Bush just named a name. I hope to hell he got the name right. He sounds sincere...decent answer.

Kerry: Fourth and fifth 'nam references. Don't confuse the war with the warrior? Kerry talks about his "plan" for success in Iraq.

Bush begs a rebuttal - too many times with the wrong war, wrong time, etc...but his response is pretty good.

WAZA-ARi Bush.

Can you give us a time certain for troop withdrawal (to Kerry)?

Talks about his "plan" some more...sorry, Kerry and his plan, though he is delivering it well here, ring extremely hollow to me.

Bush: There's 100,000 troops trained...talks about the inability of Kerry to change conditions on the ground by insulting Allawi - Bush talks more about consistency.

This opens another chance for Bush to talk about consistency and Iraq as a part of the WoT.

WAZA-ARI Bush

Does the Iraq experience make you less likely to commit troops in a preemptive way in the future?

Bush: By speaking clearly and standing by our word and showing we mean what we say, it's less likely we'll need to use force.

Kerry mentions Darfur - would he go without the UN?

TORIMASEN

(Missed question)

Kerry talks about his fighting for anti-proliferation the entire time he's been in Congress - yeah, American proliferation...

Bush talks about his position on the ICC - internationally unpopular position, but not in our interests.

WAZA-Ari Bush

Will diplomacy solve nuclear problems with N Korea and Iran?

Bush: With N Korea - yes. Talks about building a coalition against N Korea. Same with Iran.

Kerry talks about offering nuclear fuel to Iran and then instituting sanctions if it doesn't work. Why not? It's always worked before. Not.

Moderator breaks in to define positions - Bush is the multilateralist. Bush points out there already are sanctions on Iran.

WAZA-Ari Bush.

Darfur - why no troops?

Kerry goes back to the Iran question again to try to cast the use of sanctions as an example of Bush unilateralism...this is almost a JOGAI (step out of bounds), but he gets back on the question...talks about the "back door draft." Kerry talks about adding more troops to Army "but not for Iraq"

Bush points out the Iran sanctions were put in place long before his time in Washington. IPPON (Full Point) Good answer on the subject.

Question to Bush about his opponent's character flaws.

Bush is extremely gracious here. Takes an opportunity to compliment Kerry on a list of issues. But..."In the councils of government there must be certainty from the US President." This question gives Bush a chance to lighten up a bit and breath a little. I hope he takes advantage of it.

Kerry is also gracious in return. Talks about differences..."Certainty sometimes can get you in trouble."

Kerry talks about the threat of force to disarm Saddam...

...TORIMASEN

The most serious threat to the United States is...?

Kerry: Nuclear Proliferation. Talks about securing Russia's nuke material. I haven't heard this as a major issue before? Is this an attempt to bring in an issue with some numbers Bush can't possibly be prepared to rebut? Talks about mixed messages by researching new weapons. Do most people not see the difference between American nukes and nukes elsewhere? Yes, but Northern Liberals don't.

Bush does rebut and says they've increased funding against nuke proliferation by 35%? I dunno who's right. Talks about an initiative I didn't catch...also busting AQ Khan and Libya, also the missile shield and points out Kerry is against it.

Kerry talks about bi-lateral talks with N Korea giving Bush a chance to cast himself as the multilateralist.

WAZA-Ari Bush.

Did you misjudge Putin?

Bush takes opportunity to criticize Putin, but says Russia shares our fight - refers to him as "Vladimir." Notes that he needs to keep a useful relationship with Putin. It's important.

Kerry: The KGB basement at "Treblinka Square"? Is there such a place? Goes back to talking about N Korea and Iraq again.

Bush rebuts and gives Kerry an opening to talk about Iraq again. Bad job, but he was good up to that point.

WAZA-Ari Bush.

Closing statements:

Sixth Kerry 'nam reference. Talks about his "plan" in Iraq - not about leaving, about winning [Part of what he would have done better seems to be that he would have dealt with a coalition of the bribed and the coerced, etc...only he would have bribed and coerced them more effectively.]. Is that what he's been doing? It doesn't feel like it. He's been talking about leaving. Concludes with "God Bless America"

Bush: If America shows weakness, the world will drift toward tragedy. "The military will be an all-volunteer Army." (Gotta kill those rumors). (Bush is calm again - this is much better.)

I'm giving this WAZA-Ari to Bush. He was back on target again and finished well, as he began.

Ooooh...John Kerry just kissed Theresa!! ptooi The Bush girls are mega-cute.

There were no real zingers tonight. No "You're no John Kennedy" moment. Bush was shrill, Kerry far more relaxed and Presidential. I didn't know the entire thing was going to be over Iraq and foreign policy - nothing on domestic issues.

I'm looking forward to reading the fallout and punditry.

I've got to tally up my score now. OK, 7.5 Bush, 1.5 Kerry - well, I'm a partisan after all, and I have my opinions already set on the substance of a variety of these issues. The game was much closer than the score implies. On horse-race, I think Kerry benefited tonight.

George Bush, NO-KACHI Match decision to Bush.

But that's not the whole story. I predict increased numbers for Kerry tomorrow on style and soundbite. The President had a lot of the right messages, I just wish he were a tad more articulate - yeah, that's the understatement of the year. One last thought on Bush's demeanor: While I thought the sour face and clear annoyance on Bush's part didn't "sell" well, there is an aspect of it I liked, and it holds with my overall image of the guy. He is for real. There's nothing fake there. He's genuinely annoyed when his record is twisted, or when he feels his position is being mischaracterized and he wants to get in there and respond. I like that. It's just not very "Presidential" - whatever the hell that means.

Update: Transcript is here.