Monday, March 28, 2005
What we have here is a failure to communicate. The US Ambassador raised some eyebrows the other day with some remarks about whether there were or were not understandings between the Americans and Israelis about issues like settlements. Clarification has come...sorta. After all, the devil is still in the details, but the overall American position is sound - the Palestinian Arabs have to get over the idea that they're going to inundate Israel with millions of "refugees" (and the Arab States generally have to stop keeping these people in perpetual limbo as part of their war against Israel), and if we've said it once, we;ve said it a thousand times - a final settlement will not include a full withdrawal to the 1949 borders, but will be adjusted to take into account security issues and demographic reality. Of course, the final American position heges a bit, which is too bad.
The reality seems more complex. There is no reason to believe that Kurtzer, a careful diplomat, contradicted existing presidential understandings. Since the Yediot report, both Kurtzer and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice have strongly reaffirmed Bush's April 14 letter. Yet confusion remains, and it arises from the Bush letter itself.
Here's what the letter from Bush to Sharon said: "As part of a final peace settlement, Israel must have secure and recognized borders... In light of new realities on the ground, including already existing major Israeli population centers, it is unrealistic to expect that the outcome of final-status negotiations will be a full and complete return to the armistice lines of 1949..."
The other "commitment" the US letter ostensibly made is evenly more tentatively worded: "It seems clear that an agreed, just, fair and realistic framework for a solution to the Palestinian refugee issue as part of any final-status agreement will need to be found through the establishment of a Palestinian state, and the settling of Palestinian refugees there, rather than in Israel" (emphasis added).
What is striking about both of these statements is that the US was careful not to take a firm position on what it emphasizes are final-status issues.
In other words, the US is saying to Israel and the Palestinians, it is up to you to negotiate on borders and refugees, but if anyone asks us, we will probably back Israel on not returning completely to the 1967 lines and on not settling Palestinians in Israel...
