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Thursday, May 26, 2005

An emailer asks:

I've been catching the news a little lately about the EU constitutional vote. It seems the french may vote no on it and apparently that may doom the thing. One thing that comes to mind out of all of this is just when does the Eu become a single country as it were? It appears to me that if they have a common currency, a common set of laws, and if it passes, a common constitution that they are pretty much a single political entity. If this is the case, when do france and the UK give up their individual permanent seats on the UN security council and get one EU seat instead? For that matter, when do all the member states of the EU give up their seats in the General Assembly for one common seat? I couldn't really find anywheres on your blog that touched on this so I fired off this email from work. As you can tell, this isn't a fully formed line of questioning/thought on my part regarding this, just thought I'd like to hear if you had any ideas on the subject.

Those are all good questions, and I'm sorry to say I don't know enough about the specifics of the EU to give you any good answers (hence the lack of posts in a search of the blog), but where else but on a blog to flaunt my ignorance, so here go a few musings on the subject. Oh, and maybe someone more knowledgable will stop by and fill us both in on the specifics.

I believe the Dutch are leaning further toward a no vote, too, BTW. (See also here.)

I'm sure the pro-EU people would argue that the EU is not about sacrificing national sovereignty - it's more about economics (the EU is replacing the old EC, after all) and working toward common goals to carry more weight in international politics, while the opponents would argue it is exactly that - a sacrifice of identity that some people are suddenly realizing they rather like now that they are facing a growing possibility that they will lose it, and not just lose it, but actually vote to get rid of it. The opponents would also likely argue that the EU is somewhat magical thinking, or putting the cart before the horse in that European culture and interests are still distinct enough that imagining them coming together in a unified and consistent front is still wishful, and thus dangerous, thinking. So none of the pro-EU side would admit they should be combining seats at the UN, since they're not disolving their separate identities, and the loss in international power would defeat part of the purpose of the thing - though you and I would probably agree that they are and they probably should.

From here (this is a BBC site, so read with your appropriate filters on - what they say it means and what it really may mean or may come to mean may be very different things):

POWERS OF THE EU

What the constitution says:

The Union is said to be subsidiary to member states and can act only in those areas where "the objectives of the intended action cannot be sufficiently achieved by the member states but can rather... be better achieved at Union level." The principle is established that the Union derives its powers from the member states.

What it means:

The idea is to stop the Union from encroaching on the rights of member states other than in areas where the members have given them away. Critics say that the EU can act in so many areas that this clause does not mean much but supporters say it will act as a brake and is an important constitutional principle.

I wouldn't start caring much about it until it becomes a non-academic issue, which it is at this point. If the EU actually works, and there does come to be a United States of Europe that's really working like one, then we can talk about it. I think there was a CIA report (yeah, I know, do they even know the Soviet Union broke up yet?) that said the EU would be broken up regardless within the next fifteen years unless it radically alters some of its economic practices and demographic trends - things that are unlikely to happen. Oh yeah, here it is. Maybe creating a massive continent-wide beureaucracy in Brussels will just accellerate the trend by increasing the moribundity. Oh, and let's not forget that as long as they all have separate seats in the UN, it's just another factor that gives them all separate interests and makes a truly unified EU even less likely. Separate seats provide plenty of gaps to insert wedges, appeal to distinct interests and separate the one from the other. Take this part from that BBC page:

FOREIGN AND DEFENCE POLICY

What the constitution says:

"The Union shall have competence to define and implement a common foreign and security policy, including the progressive framing of a common defence policy."

What it means:

It does not mean that a common foreign or defence policy will be imposed on member states. Each one will retain a right of veto and can go its own way. There is nothing that could stop divisions over Iraq for example. The aim however is to agree on as much as possible. Defence is even more sensitive and has been ring-fenced by references to the primacy of Nato for relevant members.

Now, they SAY it doesn't mean member states won't be able to go their own way, but in practice, how long until someone actually does try to go their own way on something, and the opponents start bringing all sorts of pressure to bear in order to make it completely impossible in practive. For instance, it's not hard to imagine a member state finding it impossible to pursue their own military goals or projects while their entire defense structure was tied down with all sorts of entangling alliances, contingencies and plans. It's not difficult to imagine that there would be all sorts of forces within the EU trying to do exactly that. Once power starts to consolidate, the tendency to accumulate more will be great.

Anyway, just a few thoughts. I really should read more about this.

2 Comments

Not bad for "just a few thoughts". I'll be waiting for the sequel once you get to read more.

Glad to see the subject intrigued you a little. I must admit trying to read through the EU charter and constitution but just didn't have time to really dig into it...so I punted ;)

Nice catch though, still don't have alot of time to devote to thinking through your thoughts along with the new analysis of it right now. I'll give it a look-see again when I get home after thinking it over on the drive from work. If I come up with anything else, I'll bug ya again.

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