Friday, January 20, 2006
Joe Katzman has a great post at Winds of Change: Our Darkening Sky: Iran and the War
...I personally believe that we're very likely to see at least 10 million dead in the Middle East within the next two decades, with an upper limit near 100 million. I do not believe pre-emptive action will be taken against Iran. I do, however, believe the extremist mullahs in Iran mean exactly what they say. They are steeped in an ideology that believes suicide/murder to be the holiest and most moral act possible. They have been diligent in laying strategic plans for an offensive Islamic War against Israel, America and the West. Plans backed by 25 years of action, and stated no less clearly than Mein Kampf. I believe that Ahmedinajad's talk of 12th Imam end-times and halos around his head at the UN aren't the ravings of an isolated nut, simply an unusually public (and unusually noticed) expression of beliefs that are close to mainstream within their ruling class...
Go to the original post to see the included links.
If I had any hair, it would be standing on end right now. This guy might be as pessimistic as I am........
Yes, absolute minimum this Katzman piece and the Holsinger piece he is responding to paint a viable portrait of what is not at all improbable. In that broad or minimal sense it's reminiscent of Chirac's recent statement; we don't know in a positive or absolute sense what motivated Chirac, we do know he felt compelled to say it. We can speculate about the likelihood of specific scenarios within the next year or two or the next decade or two, but there are bare minimal bounds below which a willfully obtuse and deluded quality is required. (Or, if speculation does drop below those bounds it would require a thorough-going explication rather than any mere dismissiveness motivated by ideological and politically sectarian assumptions.)