Monday, January 23, 2006
Hat tip to mal for the pointer to this Spengler piece. Interesting, but I'm not buying the conclusion. All the prognostication concerning Iran is starting to resemble all the psychic predictions that take place every New Year -- everyone takes a tidbit of logic and plausibility and walks it out to some logical-sounding conclusion. The fact is, no one knows, and the results are mostly hit or miss, but as events unfold, someone, somewhere, will be able to step forward and do an 'I told you so.'
I do not expect to wake up one morning any time soon and hear that Israel and the US bombed a wide range of targets in Iran last night. The politicos aren't anywhere near laying the public relations groundwork for it, and if they're smart, they'll stay back and force the Europeans to take the lead and go on record asking for help until the moment just absolutely cannot be put off any longer. That's my prognostication. Now watch, tomorrow I wake up and log on and...
Not at all improbable and certainly can't be dismissed, but very much agree with your opening caution.
Have never been a Spenglerian in the unitalicized sense of the term, though he can be probative and intriguing. But have typically agreed with "Spengler" more fully than in this case; perhaps he has some inside information, but that seems doubtful, since the level and quality of information needed would presumably not be available to very many, if any at all. Still, it's not improbable, that minimal assessment is reasonable enough.
On the other hand, a commenter over at Done With Mirrors notes the President has definitively stated that "Iran won't be a nuclear armed state," though I don't recall that statement being made, much less the exact quote or context.
Chirac's big pronouncement last week, when parsed, was much ado about nothing. Iran or any of the other usual state suspects are unlikely to unleash nukes against France, and he said nothing about what he would do to states like Iran that are providing financial support to radical Islamist movements all over the globe. The French did shut down Hizbollah TV, but that's about all they've done.