Friday, January 27, 2006
Well, we all recall how unreliable the polls were in the last American Presidential election, but it sure seems things were even farther off in the PA. With thanks to an emailer who's done a bit research, let's take a spin around and see how "widely respected Palestinian pollster" Khalil Shikaki did:
No Palestinian party to win majority - projection
Poll: Fatah wins by narrow margin
Exasperated Palestinians question Authority (from Jan. 23)
Ouch. Lots of faulty prognostication spread widely. I wonder who the IDF relied on:
Red-faced IDF misread the 'street'
But after the shock wore off, senior officers began wondering how the IDF had totally failed to predict what appeared in retrospect to have been clear from the outset - and pointed their fingers in one direction, at Military Intelligence.
In line with the recent Palestinian polls, MI officers, as well as Defense Ministry and Foreign Ministry officials, had for the past month predicted that Hamas would win somewhere between 30 percent to 40% of the vote, but that the ultimate winner would be Fatah...
OK, so what's this got to do with anything? We all know how unreliable polling is generally, although these results were particularly bad -- in the end, Hamas wound up with 76 seats to Fatah's 43. The networks and major papers crank out a slanted opinion any time they need fodder for a little editorial content. Well, here are some more poll results you may want to take with a grain of salt (they could vary either way, of course):
Study shows Palestinians more willing to compromise
The study, conducted by Palestinian pollster Khalil Shikaki for the US Institute of Peace (USIP), analyzes trends in Palestinian public opinion and finds it "is not an impediment to progress in the peace process."
According to Shikaki, who is considered one of the leading experts on Palestinian public opinion, the Palestinians are now more moderate than in the past and are willing to move forward on the basis of a solution which is accepted by most Israelis...
...The study shows that between 2000 and 2004 a majority of Palestinians supported terror attacks against Israelis, but this trend has changed and now 60% oppose the use of violence.
Shikaki claims the unilateral withdrawal from Gaza "only confirmed in the public's mind the belief that violence pays and in doing so rewarded the Islamists while making the PA more irrelevant than ever."
The study points to a possible positive outcome of negotiations. He finds a majority support the two-state solution, recognizing Israel as a Jewish state and accepting the proposals outlined in previous documents. "If the PA does hold a referendum on a final-status agreement, the public will most likely support it," Shikaki concludes.
Let's not take that to the bank quite yet, shall we? Yet these results are already fodder for some nice, positive-sum editorializing:
Editorial: Turning Hamas from terror
Now I happen to agree with the obvious fact that a great measure of Hamas's support was as a protest to Fatah's corruption, for which we have an irresponsible international community to thank, but I'm not sure I'd go releasing any white doves based on these poll numbers quite yet.