Saturday, January 28, 2006
Martin Kramer has a very good post on the same subject as mine below (see: Checking the Polls) -- the reliability of the polling conducted by Khalil Shikaki and what it all means. Do check it out. This is very important for understanding how decisions get made at high levels and why opinion polling matters.
First Kramer adds a personal note on the earlier controversy surrounding Shikaki:
...I know Shikaki, he's no terrorist or terrorist sympathizer, and he's been a welcome speaker at The Washington Institute where I hang my hat...
On the significance of polling:
...With each new Shikaki poll, U.S. policymakers grew more lax when it came to setting conditions for Hamas participation. Robert Satloff and Dore Gold both sharply criticized the U.S. drift that allowed entry of a gun-toting, terrorist-talking Hamas into the electoral arena. They were disregarded because of certainty at the State Department and the White House that Fatah would win anyway, and that Abu Mazen would be in a stronger position to discipline Hamas after the victory. A lot of that certainty derived from Shikaki's polls...
Read it all here: Polls that hid Hamas
It seems that even Hamas was surprised with its 76 seats, having expected something around 35.
http://www.jpost.com/servlet/Satellite?cid=1137605925826&pagename=JPost%2FJPArticle%2FShowFull
"Indeed, a Hamas leader in Nablus, a professor at An-Najah University who did not run, told the Post that many of the leaders were disappointed with the results. "We didn't want this, we didn't hope for this. We wanted to be in the opposition," he said, speaking at a green-flagged, rabble-rousing victory rally in downtown Nablus. "Now all the responsibility is on us."
They wanted to inflame the situation with Israel while hiding behind Fatah's skirts.