Saturday, March 18, 2006
I'm sorry to say I think StrategyPage has it right here. The nature and the ruthlessness of the regime make the various dissident movements very unlikely to succeed -- and I support them, hope they succeed in spite of the odds, and think we should be doing what we can as far as support and funding to increase their chances. It is, after all, short money if it succeeds. I just think we have to be honest. It's a major uphill battle.
Why "People Power" Will Fail in Iran
...The moves necessary to make "People Power" work have now been turned into techniques that have been set down on check lists and presented in seminars. There's a drill that can make this happen if two conditions apply. First, most of the population must want democracy. Second, the security forces must be willing to stand down in the face of mass demonstrations. The first condition applies in Iran, the second doesn't. While the Islamic conservatives in Iran have the support of, at most, a third of the population, they do have over a hundred thousand armed men who are willing to kill [Their neighbors. -S] to keep their religious leaders in power...
