Confidence Levels for Selected Key Judgments in This Estimate

High Confidence

- Iraq is continuing, and in some areas expanding its chemical, biological, nuclear and missile programs contrary to UN resolutions.

- We are not detecting portions of these weapons programs.

- Iraq possesses proscribed chemical and biological weapons and missiles.

- Iraq could make a nuclear weapon in months to a year once it acquires sufficient weapons grade fissile material

Moderate Confidence

- Iraq does not yet have a nuclear weapon or sufficient material to make one but is likely to have a weapon by 2007 to 2009.

If President Bush had ignored the consensus of all of America's intelligence agencies, expressed with "High Confidence," and based the administration's policies on a minority, dissenting view held by an analyst or two and expressed in a footnote, it would have been a real scandal.