Thursday, May 11, 2006
John Rosenthal has excerpts of a German editorial pointing out that Iran is highly susceptible to sanctions...if Europe cooperates:
...More comprehensive sanctions [i.e. including commercial sanctions] would be tied to ever higher costs also for the West – and, in particular, for Germany. Should commercial sanctions be applied, it would be first and foremost the EU states that are affected. In 2004, Germany was the most important supplier of Iran (12.3% of all imports), followed by France (8.5%), Italy (7.9%), and China (7.5%). Due to its long-term cooperation with Europe and a lack of local know-how, Iran is particularly dependent upon imports in the automobile and machine-building industries and the oil and gas sectors. As consequence, Iran could be highly susceptible to sanctions...
And there's the rub...for all of the talk about Bush's "war for oil," it's really always been the Europeans who were far more vulnerable and less willing to close the wall on sanctions. We can afford it. They can't. Yet they also scream that force should be off the table. If not force, then sanctions, and if not sanctions, then...?
So the nuclear race marches on.
I saw a panel discussion a year ago with Reuel Mark Gerecht who said the same thing. He wasn't too optimistic about the Euroweenies acting in their own best interests.