Friday, October 20, 2006
The poll numbers have been all over the place, but the latest Q Poll has Lieberman up 17 over Lamont...a 7 point change from three weeks ago. That's not the direction Ned needs to go.
Poll: Lieberman's Lead Growing in Conn.
Lieberman, running as an independent after losing the Aug. 8 Democratic primary to Lamont, leads the Greenwich businessman 52 percent to 35 percent among Connecticut likely voters in the poll released Friday. Republican Alan Schlesinger trailed with 6 percent, and 7 percent were undecided.
A similar poll released on September 28 showed Lieberman with a 10-point lead.
The debate between Lieberman and Lamont on Monday was their first since the August primary. Among those in the poll who watched the debate or read or heard about it, only 3 percent said it changed their minds.
"Ned Lamont needed to score a knockout in the debates to catch Sen. Joseph Lieberman, but he apparently didn't lay a glove on him," poll director Douglas Schwartz said.
The poll suggested that Lieberman's support among Republicans and independent voters was substantial.
Lieberman leads Lamont 70 percent to 9 percent among likely Republican voters, with 18 percent for Schlesinger, and 58-36 among likely independent voters. Likely Democratic voters back Lamont, 55 percent to 36 percent...
The tone at the Lamont blog is sounding a bit more somber than usual. They seem to have taken an extra moment away from sticking pins in Lieberman dolls to notice...it isn't working:
I don’t know precisely what to make of today’s poll – - still waiting to hear what the R/D/I breakdown was, cause that isn’t released in the cross-tabs. I also know that it doesn’t track with our internal numbers, and probably not Joe’s either (given their whining the past few days).
We still have another debate left, prime time on Monday night. The current q-poll doesn’t include last night’s debate. We have a record ad buy running next week that Joe Lieberman can’t match. And Lord knows our ground game is unrivaled by any other major or minor party candidate in the race. The q-poll has a history of being off by double digits in this race (see, primary). Then there’s the absolute wild-card of Joe’s ballot placement...
I'm not big on polls myself, but you can't ignore them, either. These polls have been tough to ignore, and trending badly for Lamont.
Let me try to explain one reason why the debates haven't helped Ned Lamont all that much. It's superficial, but it's real. Here are three men's faces, A, B and C:
You match the profession with the person. Here are your choices: Insurance Salesman, Pastor, Senator. Pastors and insurance salesmen are honorable professionals, but that's not what the people of Connecticut are voting for.
Anyway, there's only one poll that counts.
[The Lieberman/Lamont Notebook is part of my ongoing coverage of the race for Pajamas Media.]
A Liberman victory over Lamont will be a major defeat for the Soros / DailyKos crowd that I will revel in!